My Oscar-prediction list

As I’ve been saying for a while, I think this is a terrible year in Hollywood. Rightly, the slim pickings for the best in pictures has been easily overshadowed by the diversity and race issues that have dominated the debate.

Race has been the talking point, mainly because it’s a vitally important conversation to have and I admire Academy President Cheryl Boone Isaacs’ swift reactions in forcing through change. However, I do feel that if any of these all-white films were any bloody good, we’d be happily talking about them instead.

Look, I think Amy is a great doc, Inside Out a genius animation and Son of Saul an astounding piece of cinema. I think Michael Fassbender did great work in a disappointing movie and Todd Haynes magicked up a lovely vision in classy Carol, probably the movie that will endure most of all as any kind of classic.

But when The Martian and Mad Max are in the running for Best Picture, you know it’s a weak year. Even Bridge of Spies, which I liked well enough, was merely solid Spielberg while The Big Short is horridly smug, crassly acted and misses its satirical target.

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Spotlight

Spotlight seems to me a film with genuine passion, intelligence and integrity, and Brooklyn has a certain coltish charm – but they’re both a bit on the dull side if we’re honest.

For me, only Room has the heart-in-mouth moments, the tears, surprises and the emotional clout I expect of good movie. The Revenant, for all its ludicrous macho posturing, also has cojones, even if it’s an endurance test for the patience, like an endless running video game, with bears. And snow. But, after its BAFTA triumph, I think it’ll win even though I know there’s a sudden swell of opinion for The Big Short to win, which would be terrible news, as I hated it.

So here goes anyway, my predictions. I’ve split them up into what will win and what should win, though this year, my heart isn’t really with many of them.

Generally, I get 16 or 17 right. I hope I get closer this year, although despite the drabness of the runners, the race itself is rather more unpredictable that it has been for a while. I think the fact that even this unpredictability hasn’t really translated into excitement proves the films’ lack of lustre.

I’ll see you on Monday morning on the BBC News channel live at 0930 with all the results, my reactions and how many I got right.

Best Picture: The Revenant; Spotlight

Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio; Michael Fassbender

Best Actress: Brie Larson; Charlotte Rampling

Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone; Mark Rylance

Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander; Rooney Mara

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Inside Out

Animated Feature Film: Inside Out; Inside Out should win Best Pic

Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant; Ed Lachman’s work in Carol

Costume Design: Carol; I really hope it isn’t Mad Max

Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant; Todd Haynes should have been nominated and I’d love Lenny Abrahamson to win, but he won’t

Documentary Feature: Amy; Amy

Documentary Short: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah; I haven’t seen any others

Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road; if it has to win something, this’ll do, though The Revenant was better

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Son of Saul

Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul; Mustang is possible

Makeup and Hairstyling: Mad Max: Fury Road; it’s hard to look that messy

Music (Original Score): Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eightno contest – though Sicario was interesting

Music (Original Song): Til It Happens to You, Lady Gaga (from The Hunting Ground); it’d be nicer if Sam Smith won as I really don’t mind that Bond song.

Production Design:  Mad Max; Bridge of Spies

Short Film (Animated): Bear Story; only one I saw, but it’s great

Short Film (Live Action): Stutterer; haven’t seen the others

Sound Editing: Star Wars: The Force Awakens; they have to give it something, surely?

Sound Mixing: The Martian; seriously, what do I know about sound mixing?

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Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Visual Effects: Star Wars; Ex Machina

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): The Big Short; Brooklyn

Writing (Original Screenplay): Spotlight; Bridge of Spies

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